Altın fiyatı 2025’te ABD dolarının veya Fed’in para politikasının insafına kalmayacak

The gold market in 2024 has proven to be remarkably dynamic. Here are the key highlights:

1. Record Rise in Gold Prices

• Demand Surge: Intense demand from Asia and record-breaking gold purchases by central banks were the primary drivers of rising prices.
• Price Levels: The price of a 14-kilogram good delivery gold bar, according to the London Bullion Market Association, exceeded $1 million.
• Annual Performance: Gold prices increased by more than 25%, maintaining strong support above $2,600 per ounce throughout the year. By November’s end, prices surged over 30%, marking the best annual gains since 1979.
  

  2. Forecasts

  • Price Projections:
    • A 50% chance of trading between $2,600 and $2,900 per ounce.
    • A 30% chance of trading between $2,900 and $3,100 per ounce.
    • A 20% chance of declining to a range between $2,200 and $2,600 per ounce in a bearish scenario.

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  3. Factors Influencing the Market

  • Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Policy:
    • The Fed plans only two rate cuts in 2025, which could influence investor expectations.
    • However, the hawkish stance in 2024 didn’t prevent record gold prices and further gains are expected in 2025.
  • Inflation and Geopolitical Risks:
    • If the Fed’s hawkish stance stems from rising inflation, this could have a positive impact on gold prices.
      

      4. Asian Demand and Consumer Behavior

      • Strong Demand in Asia:
        • Economic struggles in China have led investors to traditional gold investments.
        • There’s also a significant revival in emerging market demand led by India, Vietnam, Korea, and Thailand.
      • Economic Uncertainty and Security Seeking:
        • Consumers are turning to gold as a safe haven against economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks.

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      5. Role of Central Banks

      • Central banks remain the dominant force driving demand in the gold market.2024 was a memorable year for gold, not just for its price increases but also for the shifting consumer behaviors in Asia and the substantial purchases by central banks. Heading into 2025, the gold market is expected to maintain its strong momentum.